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☆ Hedge funds are selling stocks at the fastest pace in three months and stepping up short bets
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-09 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Hedge funds are dumping stocks at the fastest pace in three months as what's often called " the smart money " stepped up bearish wagers against equities amid the recent pullback. The professionals sold global stocks on a net basis for a second straight week last week, driven almost entirely by short sales, according to Goldman Sachs' prime brokerage data. It marked the biggest selling week for hedge funds since mid-January, the data showed. Its hedge fund clients sold stocks for a fifth consecutive week last week, exiting shares across small-, mid- and large-cap companies. The S & P 500 declined nearly 1%, its biggest weekly loss since early January, although the equity benchmark is still only 1.7% below its record high.

Persons: Goldman Sachs, David Bahnsen, Goldman, Jean Boivin, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of, Dow, Bahnsen Group, P Retail, Traders, Fed, BlackRock Investment Institute Locations: U.S

☆ Wall Street is betting big on a soft landing for the economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-18 | by ( Theron Mohamed | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

Read previewRisk is back in fashion on Wall Street as investors shed their fears and become more adventurous with their cash. Wall Street is betting big on a soft landing, where the Fed succeeds in bringing inflation down without unemployment surging or a recession taking hold. Related storiesSimilarly, Goldman Sachs analysts said in a recent outlook that "risk appetite is poised to grow" this year as recession relief and rate cuts embolden investors. When the music stopsThe outlook for stocks and the economy might seem brighter, but it's worth being at least a little skeptical of the current enthusiasm. "Nobody seems to care about valuations, and now you have Wall Street strategists laying claim that we are in a brand new era," veteran economist David Rosenberg said in a recent note.

Persons: —, BII, Goldman Sachs, David Rosenberg, Jeremy Grantham, there's, Ed Yardeni Organizations: Service, Federal, Business, Investors, BlackRock Investment Institute, Nvidia, Grantham, Swissquote Bank Locations: BlackRock

☆ Here’s what you should know about adding emerging markets bond exposure to your portfolio
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-14 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

It may be time to consider adding emerging markets bonds to your fixed-income portfolio. His Vanguard Emerging Markets Bond Fund (VEGBX) is rated five stars by Morningstar. BlackRock also likes emerging markets, specifically external currency debt. Often issued in U.S. dollars, hard currency EM debt is also cushioned from EM currency weakness as EM central banks cut rates," she wrote. He suggests working with an advisor if you want to add EM bonds to your portfolio.

Persons: shying, Daniel Shaykevich, Morningstar, you'd, Shaykevich, Wei Li, Vanguard's Shaykevich, It's Organizations: Vanguard, Emerging Markets Bond Fund, BlackRock, U.S, BlackRock Investment Locations: Treasurys, America, Mexico, Brazil, Saudi Arabia

☆ BlackRock upgrades U.S. stocks to overweight, sees momentum carry on for the next 6 to 12 months
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-29 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, on Monday upgraded its outlook for U.S. stocks to overweight, seeing upward momentum carry on as inflation eases. "So we upgrade broad U.S. stocks — our index level view plus AI theme preference — to overweight on a tactical horizon of six to 12 months." While the firm sees inflation falling near the Fed's 2% target, it expects prices to go up toward 3% next year. "We agree with markets that inflation will fall near 2% this year, helping the upward momentum extend into the year. The firm said wage growth in the U.S. is still running too hot for services inflation to slow enough to keep core inflation near 2%.

Persons: Jean Boivin, BlackRock Organizations: BlackRock, BlackRock Investment Institute, Tech, Gross, Investors, Microsoft Locations: BlackRock, U.S

☆ 7 stocks ready to rally by 118% to 288%, according to Wall Street's top analysts as compiled by a financial data firm
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

If you're looking at this year's economic outlook to inform your investing decisions, you may want to rethink that strategy. Investors like Bryant VanCronkhite, a senior portfolio manager at Allspring , agree that the environment is ripe for active management. The days of overpriced equities that benefited from low interest rates will soon hit a brick wall. One option is to take a cue from Wall Street's top analysts — and TipRanks, a financial data firm, has analyzed reams of data to compile useful lists. Below is a set of seven mid-cap stocks that analysts have given "strong buy" ratings with high upside.

Persons: It's, Long, Goldman Sachs, Jean Boivin, Bryant, — Organizations: Business, Bank of, BlackRock Investment Institute, Allspring, NYSE, Nasdaq

☆ BlackRock warns of US earnings stagnation, remains bullish on AI, Japan
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-23 | by ( David Randall | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

The S&P 500 is down nearly 8% from its July highs as a selloff in Treasuries has pushed yields near 16-year highs, sapping investor enthusiasm for equities. While the firm is underweight broad equities for the next 6 to 12 months, it remains bullish on mega-cap technology companies, as well as healthcare and Japanese stocks, it noted. Overall, stock valuations look elevated, especially given the higher yields available in the bond market, the firm noted. The bearish call from BlackRock, the world's largest asset manager, comes as investors closely watch earnings for signs that the U.S. economy remains resilient in the face of rising interest rates. Companies in the S&P 500 are expected to post earnings growth of 1.3% in the third quarter compared with the same time last year, according to LSEG IBES.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, LSEG, David Randall, Hugh Lawson Organizations: BlackRock, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, BlackRock Investment, Companies, Microsoft, Google, Facebook, Apple, Nvidia, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, BlackRock, Treasuries

☆ Should you lock in those high yields right now? Here's what Wall Street is saying, and how to invest
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( Weizhen Tan | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

But with 10-year Treasury yields surging to 5% - a 16-year high , many investors might now be tempted to lock in those high yields and buy into bonds. "You may not see such high yields as these in the next year or two," he told CNBC's " Squawk Box Asia " on Thursday. Bond prices and bond yields move in opposite directions. It's unfavorable on U.S. intermediate-term fixed income, as well as high yield taxable fixed income. Types of fixed income that it's overweight on include short-term U.S. Treasurys, U.S. inflation-linked bonds, U.K. gilts and emerging market bonds.

Persons: Wells, Paul Christopher, CNBC's, Christopher, Wells Fargo, Thomas Poullaouec, Rowe Price, Wells Fargo's Scott Wren, Bryn Jones, Rathbones, there's, Jones, He's, BlackRock Organizations: Investment, U.S, gilts, BlackRock Investment, U.S . Federal Reserve, Treasurys Locations: Asia, Pacific

Felipe Villarroel, portfolio manager at TwentyFour Asset Management, said he recently swapped some 10-year Treasuries for higher yielding 30-year Treasuries. At these levels, yields give “a massive cushion in your total returns" to protect against bond prices falling further, he said. Yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury were over 4.95% in Asia trade on Thursday, their highest level in more than 16 years, and 30-year yields breached 5% this month for the first time since 2007. An auction of 30-year U.S. Treasuries showed weak demand last week, sending yields higher. "The tightness that (bond yields) are imposing on the economy and markets is rising ... this caps the extra work the Fed needs to do," said Smith.

Persons: Jerome Powell, David Rubenstein, Amanda Andrade, Rhoades, Felipe Villarroel, Treasuries, Matt Smith, Ruffer, Buyers, Leslie Falconio, Ruffer's Smith, Smith, Davide Barbuscia, Michelle Price, Ira Iosebashvili, Nick Zieminski Organizations: Federal, Economic, of Washington, Washington , D.C, REUTERS, Treasuries, TwentyFour Asset Management, Bank of America Global Research, Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, BlackRock Investment Institute, Thomson Locations: Washington ,, Asia

☆ BlackRock Investment Institute raises rating of long-dated US Treasuries
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-16 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: 1 min

A bronze seal for the Department of the Treasury is shown at the U.S. Treasury building in Washington, U.S., January 20, 2023. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsOct 16 (Reuters) - BlackRock Investment Institute on Monday raised the rating of long-dated U.S. Treasuries to "neutral" from "underweight" as it sees yields approaching a peak. "We now see about equal odds that long-term yields swing in either direction," said Jean Boivin, head of BlackRock Investment Institute. BlackRock Investment Institute, an arm of U.S.-based investment firm BlackRock that provides proprietary investment research, is "overweight" on euro area and UK bonds as it sees more rate cuts than the market in these regions. Reporting by Susan Mathew in Bengaluru; Editing by Shounak DasguptaOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: Kevin Lamarque, Jean Boivin, Susan Mathew, Shounak Dasgupta Organizations: Department of, U.S . Treasury, REUTERS, BlackRock Investment, BlackRock Investment Institute, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, U.S, BlackRock, Bengaluru

☆ Investors can get a 5% yield in these assets and skip the bond market volatility
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-06 | by ( Michelle Fox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

Investing in money market funds The interest in money market funds began to heat up when the Federal Reserve started raising interest rates last year, Antoniewicz said. Some $64.13 billion flowed into money market funds the week ended Wednesday, bringing total net assets to a record $5.71 trillion, per the Investment Company Institute . Net assets also hit a record within retail money market funds, reaching $2.16 billion, the ICI said. The annualized 7-day yield yield on the Crane 100 list of the 100 largest taxable money funds is currently 5.18%. "So if you have stability in a money market fund and an equal or higher yield, why would anyone consider leaving a money market fund to go longer term and have the volatility?"

Persons: Peter Crane, Jean Boivin, Shelly Antoniewicz, Antoniewicz, Barry Glassman, Glassman, I'm Organizations: Crane, Treasury, Federal Reserve, BlackRock Investment Institute, Investment Company Institute, ICI, Data, Wealth Services

☆ Asia stocks slip, dollar firms on growth concerns, Fed outlook
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-06 | by ( Kane Wu | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +3 min

REUTERS/Androniki Christodoulou/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsHONG KONG, Sept 6 (Reuters) - Asia stocks fell on Wednesday after faltering growth in China and Europe heightened concerns about global economic momentum, while the dollar firmed as investors weighed the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rates. MSCI's gauge of Asia Pacific stocks outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) dipped 0.45%. "The China decline was bigger than expected," said Redmond Wong, Greater China market strategist at Saxo Markets. Manufacturing data from Germany, Britain and the euro zone also showed declines, while their service sectors fell into contraction. "The Europe data were rather weak.

Persons: Androniki, HSI, Redmond Wong, Wong, Australia's, Christopher Waller, John Milroy, Ord Minnett, Brent, Kane Wu, Edmund Klamann, Sam Holmes Organizations: REUTERS, Federal Reserve, Saxo Markets, Nikkei, U.S, BlackRock Investment Institute, Institute for Supply Management, PMI, Thomson Locations: Tokyo, Japan, HONG KONG, Asia, China, Europe, London, U.S, 0520GMT, Asia Pacific, Greater China, Germany, Britain, BlackRock, ., Saudi Arabia, Russia

The BlackRock logo is pictured outside their headquarters in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., May 25, 2021. "We prefer short-term government bonds over credit," the institute, an arm of BlackRock (BLK.N), the world's largest asset manager, said in a note. "We go underweight high quality credit on a strategic view of five years and longer and trim our overall underweight to sovereign bonds." "We think high quality credit offers limited compensation for any potential hit to returns from wider spreads and sensitivity to interest rate swings," the institute said. "To turn positive on long-term bonds, we would need to see term premium rise much more or think market expectations of future policy rates are too high.

Persons: Carlo Allegri, Davide Barbuscia, Jonathan Oatis Organizations: REUTERS, BlackRock Investment, ICE, Thomson Locations: BlackRock, Manhattan, New York City , New York, U.S

☆ VIEW Bank of England raises rates for a 14th time
▼ + stars: | 2023-08-03 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

The BoE raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.25% and said high inflation meant it was unlikely to stop raising rates any time soon. However, with Thursday's decision, traders began to price in a lower peak in UK rates. MONEY MARKETS: Interest-rate derivatives showed traders believe UK rates will peak around 5.67% by March, compared with an expected peak of 5.73% in the run-up to the decision. Rising interest rates means higher borrowing costs, which will lead to larger monthly mortgage payments for many homeowners." The Bank of England remains committed to bringing inflation down, unfortunately raising interest rates is one of the only tools the Bank can use to sap demand out of the economy."

Persons: BoE, Sterling, VIVEK PAUL, we’ll, STUART COLE, JEREMY BATSTONE, CARR, RAYMOND JAMES, MARCUS BROOKES, ” SEEMA SHAH, Rishi Sunak, GILES COGHLAN, THOMAS PUGH, JOHN LEIPER, Amanda Cooper, Samuel Indyk Organizations: Bank of England, FTSE, BLACKROCK, LONDON, TOM HOPKINS, Bank of, RSM, Bank, EMEA, Thomson Locations: LONDON, EUROPEAN, U.S

[1/3] A street sign for Wall Street is seen outside the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, New York, U.S., July 19, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly/File PhotoSummaryCompanies U.S., European shares tick up as traders eye CPI, earningsChina inflation surprisingly weak in JuneDollar, oil prices declineJuly 10 (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks rose slightly on Monday, while oil prices and the dollar dipped, as investors digested Chinese economic data and looked ahead to a key U.S. inflation report and corporate earnings. "Stubbornly high U.S. CPI inflation data this week could bolster the recent bond yield surge as markets expect the Fed to hike rates." Currently futures imply around a 90% probability of a rise to 5.25%-5.5% this month, up 25 basis points. The yield on 10-year U.S. notes fell 4 basis points on Monday to 4.008%.

Persons: Andrew Kelly, Matthias Scheiber, Wells, Michael Barr, Brent, Lawrence Delevingne, Nell Mackenzie, Mark Heinrich, David Evans, Will Dunham, Christina Fincher Organizations: Wall, New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Allspring Global Investments, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Citi, PepsiCo, BlackRock Investment, U.S, Federal Reserve, Federal, Thomson Locations: New York City , New York, U.S, China, reflating, London, Europe, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Boston

The research arm of BlackRock, the world's biggest asset manager, shifted its view on Japanese equities to neutral from underweight. "We are looking for more evidence of corporate reform to support the enthusiasm for its equity markets that has gripped foreign investors so far this year," wrote analysts at BlackRock Investment Institute, in its mid-year outlook report last week. "It's not the case that we've already seen the completion of offshore investors' quite aggressive investment in Japan equity markets," said Nomura's chief equity strategist for Japan, Yunosuke Ikeda. "Now, a lot of asset owners have decided just not to invest in China any more, and that's made Japan the top dog in Asia." Many analysts and investors, though, consider the declines a healthy and necessary retracement before the next leg higher, with 35,000 often touted as a target for this year as slower-moving foreign investors start to buy in size.

Persons: Nomura, It's, Yunosuke Ikeda, Archie Ciganer, Rowe Price, Ciganer, that's, Warren Buffett, Vikas Pershad, Kevin Buckland, Ankur Banerjee, Junko Fujita, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: Nikkei, BlackRock Investment Institute, Nomura Securities, Graphics, G Investments, Thomson Locations: TOKYO, Japan, BlackRock, China, Asia, Tokyo, Singapore

☆ BlackRock says AI 'mega-force' to buck tough macro trend
▼ + stars: | 2023-06-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +2 min

June 28 (Reuters) - Shares of AI-focused companies will be a major driver of returns for developed markets in a tough economic environment, BlackRock Investment Institute said, citing an unusually concentrated rally in a handful of technology stocks. "We think this unusual equity market shows a mega force like AI can be a big driver of returns even when the macro environment is not your friend," BlackRock Investment Institute's team wrote in a mid-year outlook note. The institute, an arm of the world's biggest asset manager, has an over-weight allocation for AI-related shares in developed markets. "We think this is an environment that is going to persist," Jean Bovin, Head of the BlackRock Investment Institute told reporters on Wednesday. BlackRock said it expects central banks in developed economies to keep rates steady at a high level regardless of possible episodes of financial instability.

Persons: Jean Bovin, BlackRock, Susan Mathew, Davide Barbuscia, Sinead Carew, Anil D'Silva, Barbara Lewis Organizations: BlackRock Investment Institute, Investment, Thomson Locations: BlackRock, Japan, Bengaluru, New York

With some 1.6 million of those due to re-fix mostly 2-5 year fixed rate deals over the next 18 months - half of those by the end of this year - this super-hike will burn. Two-year fixed mortgage rates have doubled to 6% in just 10 months and were less than 1% two years ago. Fixed-rate deals were only introduced at all in 1989 and the vast majority were floating rates until just eight years ago. As Leaviss points out, five-year inflation expectations in the bond market are still stubbornly one percentage point above the 2% goal. In the end, the BoE has few good choices - but the days of fine tuning the economy with nudges and tweaks may be over.

Persons: BoE, that's, Moyeen, Jim Leaviss, Vivek Paul, Paul, Leaviss, Mike Dolan, Naomi Rovnick, Conor Humphries Organizations: Bank of England, National Institute of Economic, Social Research, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Reuters, Barclays, Bank, Investment, BlackRock Investment Institute, OECD, Twitter, Thomson Locations: United States, Germany

At the height of the tightening cycle in September last year, eight central banks hiked rates by a cumulative 550 bps. Year-to-date, G10 central banks have delivered 21 rate hikes and tightened by a total of 725 bps. That compares with 54 rate hikes in the whole of 2022 and 2,700 bps of rate hikes. Developed markets interest ratesMeanwhile, emerging markets were slightly further advance in the cycle with some central banks changing tack to easing mode. That compares with 11 meetings in April, where two central banks delivered a total of 50 bps.

Persons: Jean Boivin, Karin Strohecker, Vincent Flasseur, Hugh Lawson Organizations: European Central Bank, Bank of England, Federal Reserve, BlackRock Investment Institute, UN, Thomson Locations: Australia, New Zealand, Norway, BlackRock, Israel, South Africa, Thailand, Malaysia, Hungary

☆ Mega-cap tech dominance in the S&P 500 is obscuring investor bets that the US may already be in a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-31 | by ( Carla Mozée | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The jump in S&P 500's big tech stocks is masking concerns among investors that the US is already in recession, BlackRock Investment Institute says. The US has logged back-to-back quarters of contraction in gross domestic income. The S&P 500 has tacked on about 9% this year. Last week, the government said gross domestic income declined 2.3% in the first quarter of 2023 on a seasonally adjusted annual basis. Its aggressive series of hikes last year contributed to driving the S&P 500 down more than 18% last year.

Persons: —, Jean Boivin Organizations: BlackRock Investment Institute, US, Service, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Fed Locations: BlackRock, Germany, Europe's, U.S

☆ BlackRock moves from 'overweight' to 'neutral' on credit
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-22 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

[1/2] People are seen in front of a showroom that hosts BlackRock in Davos, Switzerland Januar 22, 2020. REUTERS/Arnd WiegmannMay 22 (Reuters) - BlackRock Investment Institute on Monday said it was moving from "overweight" to "neutral" on credit, saying yields are not enough to compensate investors for tightening credit conditions. In a research note, it also said it was moving from "underweight" to "neutral" on private markets following recent weakness in the U.S. regional banking industry. "The fallout from the banking sector troubles and further tightening of credit conditions adds to the pressure on public credit but could be a potential boon for private credit," the investment management company said. The BlackRock Investment Institute is an arm of U.S.-based investment firm BlackRock that provides proprietary investment research.

☆ 'Big money never buys cheap': Why investors are waiting on Japan
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Summer Zhen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Yet for many, the lofty milestones are a reminder that Japan's stocks have gone sideways for years, making many foreign asset allocators reluctant to venture into the market. "A very significant inflow from global investors (followed)," Powell said, "but then unfortunately, a lot of the enthusiasm has dissipated." Swiss wealth manager Union Bancaire Privée is also underweight Japan, with the policy outlook presenting currency risks. BIG MONEY WAITINGThe policy and communication challenge for new BOJ governor Kazuo Ueda is a tricky one. "Big money never buys cheap, it buys momentum."

☆ Analysis: 'Big money never buys cheap': Why investors are waiting on Japan
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-18 | by ( Summer Zhen | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

☆ Anti-inflation fight may spur recession, investment opportunities -BlackRock
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-15 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

NEW YORK, May 15 (Reuters) - Central bank efforts to tame inflation could spark a recession and market selloff that later this year or in 2024 leads to investment opportunities, the BlackRock Investment Institute (BII) said on Monday. Increased market volatility is likely ahead over talks in Washington to raise the U.S. government's $31.4 trillion borrowing cap. But the old playbook of buying the dip does not apply now, the institute said. Any selloff may cause risk assets to better price in the economic damage the institute expect from interest rate hikes. "We're ready to shift our views on a six- to 12-month horizon to take advantage of opportunities that may appear," it said.

☆ Bank of England hikes rates by 25 basis points, no longer sees recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-05-11 | by ( Elliot Smith | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +5 min

A passageway near the Bank of England (BOE) in the City of London, U.K., on Thursday, March 18, 2021. LONDON — The Bank of England on Thursday hiked interest rates by 25 basis points and revised its economic projections to now exclude the possibility of a U.K. recession this year. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 in favor of the quarter-point increase to take the main bank rate from 4.25% to 4.5%, as the bank reiterated its commitment to taming stubbornly high inflation. "In the context of resilient economic activity, we think there is a good chance of the Bank Rate peaking at 5% by the August meeting. "As rates moves deeper into restrictive territory and credit conditions tighten, a policy-induced recession becomes almost inevitable."

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